Probabilistic forecasting in day-ahead electricity markets: Simulating peak and off-peak prices
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Modeling day–ahead electricity prices
Introducing a production–based approach, we take into account different attitudes and liabilities of market participants to discuss the equilibrium day–ahead prices on electricity. Conditions ensuring the existence of the equilibrium are given and price distribution is considered. We include a discussion of reasons for high price volatility.
متن کاملDay-ahead Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets by a New Hybrid Forecast Method
Energy price forecast is the key information for generating companies to prepare their bids in the electricity markets. However, this forecasting problem is complex due to nonlinear, non-stationary, and time variant behavior of electricity price time series. Accordingly, in this paper a new strategy is proposed for electricity price forecast. The forecast strategy includes Wavelet Transform (WT...
متن کاملChallenges in forecasting peak electricity demand
We want to forecast the peak electricity demand in a half-hour period in twenty years time. We have fifteen years of half-hourly electricity data, temperature data and some economic and demographic data. The location is South Australia: home to the most volatile electricity demand in the world.
متن کاملForecasting day-ahead electricity prices in Europe: the importance of considering market integration
Motivated by the increasing integration among electricity markets, in this paper we propose three different methods to incorporate market integration in electricity price forecasting and to improve the predictive performance. First, we propose a deep neural network that considers features from connected markets to improve the predictive accuracy in a local market. To measure the importance of t...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Forecasting
سال: 2020
ISSN: 0169-2070
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.11.006